* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912013 06/05/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 31 32 34 34 31 29 26 23 21 18 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 31 32 34 34 31 26 28 25 23 20 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 21 18 23 22 21 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 19 18 24 26 22 33 36 41 45 48 46 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 1 7 10 4 3 3 -1 -1 -2 -1 -8 SHEAR DIR 268 271 262 245 261 243 243 221 221 227 236 231 243 SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.2 26.4 24.7 24.1 23.2 22.7 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 122 122 122 119 119 123 126 119 105 102 97 95 91 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 105 104 100 101 107 112 108 96 93 88 87 84 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.9 -54.8 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 10 10 10 11 10 10 8 8 5 4 0 700-500 MB RH 55 54 51 48 45 45 49 53 51 52 48 46 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 13 13 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 3 24 23 12 44 14 -4 -37 -7 -46 -40 -36 200 MB DIV 65 45 83 61 53 42 26 17 46 36 11 21 9 700-850 TADV -8 -2 5 0 -6 1 3 6 1 8 -16 20 -35 LAND (KM) 289 324 359 366 373 380 417 267 -36 43 38 384 538 LAT (DEG N) 24.1 24.4 24.6 24.7 24.7 24.9 25.7 27.3 29.6 32.4 34.9 37.1 38.7 LONG(DEG W) 88.8 89.1 89.4 89.5 89.5 89.0 87.5 85.6 82.9 79.8 75.9 71.0 64.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 2 1 1 5 10 14 18 20 21 25 26 HEAT CONTENT 9 10 10 10 10 15 21 9 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 21. 22. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -4. -11. -18. -22. -26. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 6. 4. 1. -2. -4. -7. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912013 INVEST 06/05/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912013 INVEST 06/05/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED