* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912013 06/04/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 35 38 42 45 46 44 39 33 32 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 35 38 42 45 46 44 39 33 31 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 29 30 31 33 34 35 36 35 33 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 23 18 12 13 11 14 20 27 32 41 43 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 4 -1 -2 3 3 6 1 1 3 3 1 SHEAR DIR 277 284 290 289 267 275 229 261 238 235 224 228 223 SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.2 27.0 25.3 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 126 124 124 123 123 121 119 120 122 126 125 110 103 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 109 109 108 107 104 101 102 107 112 114 100 94 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.0 -52.5 -52.0 -52.4 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -52.3 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 9 9 9 10 10 12 11 12 9 10 700-500 MB RH 69 63 63 57 55 51 47 39 38 42 45 49 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 10 12 14 13 14 13 13 16 850 MB ENV VOR 28 36 23 32 35 29 50 51 64 38 16 -35 -18 200 MB DIV 70 78 56 31 49 60 47 24 22 2 2 12 57 700-850 TADV 2 -3 3 3 2 0 2 -5 4 1 2 13 7 LAND (KM) 8 58 107 164 220 280 312 301 303 356 388 131 21 LAT (DEG N) 21.6 22.0 22.4 22.9 23.3 23.7 23.9 23.8 24.0 24.8 26.4 28.7 31.1 LONG(DEG W) 88.3 88.6 88.8 89.1 89.4 90.0 90.4 90.4 89.7 88.3 86.7 84.3 81.2 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 5 5 4 3 1 1 6 9 13 16 18 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 1 3 4 5 5 5 6 16 19 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 1. -4. -8. -13. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 13. 17. 20. 21. 19. 14. 8. 7. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912013 INVEST 06/04/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912013 INVEST 06/04/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED