* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912013 06/03/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 21 22 25 29 31 35 39 41 40 38 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 21 22 25 29 31 35 39 41 40 38 V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 18 17 17 16 17 18 19 22 24 27 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 25 25 20 17 14 10 16 8 12 14 26 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 3 2 -1 1 0 3 -2 -2 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 282 273 278 285 284 283 263 296 251 241 233 229 245 SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.2 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.5 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 121 121 122 121 121 121 121 123 126 127 128 126 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 104 105 104 104 104 105 107 110 109 110 109 108 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 9 10 11 11 12 12 13 12 12 700-500 MB RH 66 59 54 50 50 44 41 35 32 33 35 38 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 7 7 7 9 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 24 20 18 37 37 62 62 79 42 18 -5 -28 200 MB DIV 38 66 42 43 26 30 40 13 9 -11 -4 5 -10 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -4 5 0 0 -1 0 3 0 3 -2 0 LAND (KM) 194 210 226 250 275 310 308 272 240 215 234 263 321 LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.1 23.2 23.4 23.5 23.7 23.4 22.8 22.1 21.8 21.8 22.2 22.6 LONG(DEG W) 89.6 89.8 90.0 90.3 90.6 91.1 91.8 92.1 92.3 92.2 92.4 92.5 92.9 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 1 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 3 3 4 4 4 5 6 6 5 5 5 6 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 21. 25. 27. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 11. 15. 19. 21. 20. 18. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912013 INVEST 06/03/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912013 INVEST 06/03/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED