* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912012 12/03/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 43 50 56 67 67 61 56 50 43 35 33 V (KT) LAND 35 38 43 50 56 67 67 61 56 50 38 30 29 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 35 35 34 36 40 45 49 50 31 DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 39 45 54 65 60 46 41 42 54 49 46 37 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 11 14 10 10 0 0 0 -3 2 2 5 N/A SHEAR DIR 262 258 243 236 227 229 246 263 278 289 303 297 N/A SST (C) 22.3 21.5 20.6 20.0 19.6 18.5 16.9 16.5 16.0 16.2 16.6 17.7 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 89 87 83 82 81 78 75 74 73 74 75 78 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 79 79 77 75 75 73 70 70 69 70 71 74 N/A 200 MB T (C) -60.5 -61.1 -61.3 -61.8 -61.8 -61.6 -61.1 -61.8 -62.2 -62.9 -62.4 -61.4 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 60 58 50 52 51 53 52 53 56 55 55 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 22 23 26 32 34 36 30 25 22 17 13 8 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 120 127 131 133 146 156 143 139 104 55 13 8 N/A 200 MB DIV 81 86 57 76 96 89 75 -8 -8 -33 -38 -28 N/A 700-850 TADV 32 35 44 54 22 -2 -16 -19 3 7 30 12 N/A LAND (KM) 1871 1770 1678 1628 1598 1671 1695 1256 831 410 -25 -78 N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.9 33.3 34.7 36.1 37.5 40.1 41.8 42.6 42.7 42.2 40.7 38.6 N/A LONG(DEG W) 42.7 41.9 41.0 39.6 38.2 34.5 29.7 24.5 19.3 14.0 8.4 2.9 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 16 17 18 19 20 20 19 19 21 23 24 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 10 CX,CY: 2/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 722 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 5. 4. -2. -12. -22. -29. -34. -37. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 3. 7. 12. 16. 24. 32. 38. 44. 51. 56. 58. 61. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -17. -21. -25. -28. -30. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 5. 7. 10. 6. 1. -2. -7. -11. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 15. 21. 32. 32. 26. 21. 15. 8. 0. -2. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912012 INVEST 12/03/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 52.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912012 INVEST 12/03/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)