* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912012 12/02/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 42 52 63 69 73 72 69 60 48 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 42 52 63 69 73 72 69 60 48 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 32 34 37 43 49 52 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 31 30 28 25 41 38 52 47 43 48 56 59 59 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 3 4 5 14 9 4 0 0 -6 -3 -13 SHEAR DIR 274 270 279 272 264 253 232 217 237 258 270 280 276 SST (C) 24.1 23.8 23.5 23.0 22.6 21.0 19.5 17.4 15.9 14.9 15.0 15.2 16.1 POT. INT. (KT) 97 95 94 92 91 86 82 78 74 70 69 70 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 86 84 83 82 82 79 77 74 70 67 65 66 67 200 MB T (C) -59.0 -58.7 -58.8 -59.3 -59.9 -62.0 -62.9 -62.4 -62.8 -62.9 -63.5 -63.3 -63.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 60 59 62 62 58 58 51 56 59 52 44 41 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 17 17 18 20 23 28 32 32 29 25 19 11 850 MB ENV VOR 87 93 113 106 114 121 114 95 83 106 89 44 -37 200 MB DIV 28 7 21 46 56 69 108 83 87 52 -30 -56 -54 700-850 TADV 10 16 11 16 31 61 58 -36 -49 -10 -20 -4 -16 LAND (KM) 2310 2234 2157 2071 1987 1817 1729 1830 1374 1030 770 495 346 LAT (DEG N) 27.7 28.4 29.1 30.1 31.0 33.7 37.3 41.1 44.4 46.3 46.1 44.3 42.2 LONG(DEG W) 42.5 42.6 42.7 42.4 42.1 40.1 36.4 31.6 26.1 21.4 17.8 15.0 13.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 9 10 13 19 25 26 22 15 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 6. 9. 11. 12. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 3. -6. -14. -21. -27. -33. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 28. 34. 41. 49. 55. 58. 62. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -15. -19. -23. -26. -28. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 15. 15. 11. 7. 2. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 27. 38. 44. 48. 47. 44. 35. 23. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912012 INVEST 12/02/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912012 INVEST 12/02/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)