* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912012 12/01/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 40 44 52 55 57 60 63 67 68 68 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 40 44 52 55 57 60 63 67 68 68 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 27 29 32 36 41 46 51 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 57 47 43 35 35 36 30 32 35 36 35 44 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -5 -2 0 0 0 6 12 11 6 1 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 287 281 275 270 276 285 273 240 218 206 237 267 276 SST (C) 25.0 24.9 24.7 24.5 24.3 23.8 22.9 21.3 19.6 18.1 16.2 14.9 15.0 POT. INT. (KT) 103 101 100 99 98 96 92 87 82 79 74 69 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 89 88 88 87 85 85 83 80 77 75 70 65 62 200 MB T (C) -59.2 -59.1 -58.8 -58.7 -59.1 -58.6 -59.0 -61.3 -62.2 -62.1 -62.3 -62.7 -63.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 58 60 60 58 55 58 61 54 60 61 52 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 10 13 15 17 18 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 57 66 76 86 114 123 132 116 117 97 107 88 200 MB DIV 32 28 13 18 37 34 39 52 89 117 83 63 -20 700-850 TADV 0 2 4 6 7 5 16 21 -5 -40 -16 16 -26 LAND (KM) 2480 2482 2447 2390 2334 2202 2021 1815 1652 1687 1551 1199 1105 LAT (DEG N) 25.4 25.8 26.2 26.8 27.3 28.5 30.5 33.3 36.9 40.7 44.0 46.1 46.0 LONG(DEG W) 42.9 43.0 43.1 43.1 43.0 43.2 42.5 40.9 38.1 33.8 28.3 24.0 22.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 5 6 5 8 13 18 23 26 22 12 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 7. 11. 13. 14. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. -3. -11. -18. -23. -26. -28. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 5. 8. 11. 16. 21. 27. 33. 40. 46. 49. 54. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -20. -23. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 19. 27. 30. 32. 35. 38. 42. 43. 43. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912012 INVEST 12/01/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 43.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912012 INVEST 12/01/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)