* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912012 11/30/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 38 43 51 55 53 54 55 60 62 62 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 38 43 51 55 53 54 55 60 62 62 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 28 29 30 32 36 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 51 58 53 44 38 43 48 48 55 58 43 29 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -9 -5 -3 1 -4 -1 6 11 8 5 3 1 SHEAR DIR 297 292 284 284 275 284 275 270 223 213 208 233 262 SST (C) 25.2 25.1 25.0 24.9 24.7 24.3 23.5 22.3 20.4 19.3 17.1 15.2 13.9 POT. INT. (KT) 104 103 102 102 101 98 95 90 84 81 78 75 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 91 89 89 89 88 86 85 83 78 76 74 72 70 200 MB T (C) -58.9 -58.7 -58.7 -58.5 -58.2 -58.9 -58.5 -59.9 -61.1 -61.4 -61.4 -61.5 -61.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 58 58 59 58 57 54 53 52 52 48 58 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 8 10 13 17 20 21 23 27 29 29 27 850 MB ENV VOR 50 57 53 62 72 104 122 134 129 128 152 155 174 200 MB DIV 30 21 13 8 18 49 39 41 78 68 65 110 35 700-850 TADV 2 -1 3 2 5 4 19 40 47 28 -24 -35 -15 LAND (KM) 2428 2449 2441 2451 2416 2300 2143 1935 1689 1545 1733 1225 672 LAT (DEG N) 24.8 25.1 25.4 25.9 26.4 27.5 29.1 31.6 35.1 38.9 42.3 45.5 47.8 LONG(DEG W) 42.9 43.1 43.3 43.4 43.4 43.4 43.1 41.9 40.1 37.4 32.1 24.1 17.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 4 5 5 7 11 16 20 24 30 30 27 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 704 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 4. 8. 12. 14. 15. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -6. -18. -28. -38. -42. -43. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 5. 7. 10. 15. 20. 24. 30. 36. 42. 45. 48. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -12. -15. -19. -21. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 14. 16. 18. 20. 19. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 18. 26. 30. 28. 29. 30. 35. 37. 37. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912012 INVEST 11/30/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 49.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912012 INVEST 11/30/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)