* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912012 09/11/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 47 58 70 75 79 80 81 84 83 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 47 58 70 75 79 80 81 84 83 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 34 37 41 52 62 68 69 68 64 62 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 6 5 2 1 11 14 18 21 27 20 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -2 -4 -3 6 7 13 9 7 0 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 64 12 3 45 323 304 277 275 284 270 264 242 241 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.2 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 136 138 139 139 140 143 147 148 148 149 147 139 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 134 135 133 135 136 137 134 134 134 129 119 113 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -52.9 -53.0 -52.2 -52.0 -51.5 -51.8 -51.5 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 8 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 65 65 66 63 64 65 64 63 60 64 67 64 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 16 16 16 16 18 22 22 23 24 26 29 31 850 MB ENV VOR 106 110 108 102 98 78 52 22 -6 -10 12 67 86 200 MB DIV 12 12 41 42 26 54 61 43 49 53 70 130 97 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -4 -1 0 13 23 23 49 28 19 9 LAND (KM) 1673 1615 1560 1546 1545 1598 1564 1515 1493 1570 1728 1823 1685 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 12 12 12 11 9 10 11 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 20 21 27 32 39 50 44 46 38 41 29 17 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 469 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 10. 8. 6. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 12. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 28. 40. 45. 49. 50. 51. 54. 53. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912012 INVEST 09/11/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912012 INVEST 09/11/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)