* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912012 09/11/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 45 51 64 74 83 89 90 90 90 88 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 45 51 64 74 83 89 90 90 90 88 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 37 41 46 59 73 83 85 83 81 76 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 6 2 5 7 2 11 10 8 20 26 32 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -2 0 0 -5 2 0 8 13 5 5 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 80 67 7 37 66 98 209 257 268 282 259 254 240 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.2 28.7 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 138 140 140 138 139 143 148 148 148 152 157 148 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 141 137 132 133 139 140 132 132 142 144 129 117 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -53.7 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -52.9 -52.8 -52.0 -52.3 -51.8 -52.3 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 9 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 63 66 63 65 61 61 62 60 60 60 70 65 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 15 16 16 18 19 21 23 24 25 27 27 850 MB ENV VOR 115 113 118 112 107 95 71 36 26 6 62 99 110 200 MB DIV 24 16 19 39 50 31 64 38 68 28 53 66 63 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 -2 -3 0 -1 15 15 31 27 29 13 LAND (KM) 1716 1635 1553 1507 1470 1505 1483 1414 1435 1451 1520 1737 1599 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 14 11 11 14 13 6 6 15 15 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 17 20 27 31 36 47 45 45 44 42 34 23 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 444 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 11. 8. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 21. 34. 44. 53. 59. 60. 60. 60. 58. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912012 INVEST 09/11/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912012 INVEST 09/11/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)