* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912012 09/10/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 35 41 48 63 76 86 94 98 98 97 99 V (KT) LAND 25 29 35 41 48 63 76 86 94 98 98 97 99 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 29 32 36 47 61 75 87 92 90 86 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 7 5 0 4 3 3 8 12 18 21 25 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 0 1 -1 1 2 4 8 0 3 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 80 71 37 215 16 143 183 253 242 249 245 238 203 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.2 28.9 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 139 139 140 142 143 149 153 153 155 151 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 134 137 136 136 135 135 141 142 138 138 133 123 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -52.8 -53.2 -52.2 -52.5 -51.6 -51.8 -51.0 -51.5 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 7 6 700-500 MB RH 63 63 64 64 63 62 63 62 58 58 62 67 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 15 18 18 20 22 23 24 25 26 27 32 850 MB ENV VOR 120 121 118 123 116 103 94 69 46 25 23 73 122 200 MB DIV 54 39 26 30 47 37 65 50 44 37 51 57 130 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -1 0 -3 1 2 10 20 20 39 47 24 LAND (KM) 1819 1734 1656 1595 1550 1526 1486 1442 1296 1309 1440 1641 1649 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.1 16.4 16.9 17.3 18.3 19.3 20.9 22.8 24.9 26.8 29.1 31.5 LONG(DEG W) 39.7 41.3 42.8 44.3 45.8 48.4 50.3 52.2 54.2 55.2 55.1 54.7 53.9 STM SPEED (KT) 18 15 15 15 14 12 11 13 12 10 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 11 18 24 31 38 54 61 57 56 48 42 31 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 288 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. 11. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 5. 6. 5. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 16. 23. 38. 51. 61. 69. 73. 73. 72. 74. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912012 INVEST 09/10/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912012 INVEST 09/10/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)