* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912012 09/10/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 38 43 55 68 78 86 91 94 93 94 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 38 43 55 68 78 86 91 94 93 94 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 31 35 44 55 67 78 84 85 85 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 7 3 1 4 3 4 10 7 8 9 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 -3 0 -3 1 1 4 11 8 9 3 SHEAR DIR 62 62 77 119 261 3 281 291 292 317 303 256 270 SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 128 128 131 133 134 133 134 136 141 143 145 148 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 130 132 134 132 128 127 128 132 131 130 132 134 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.9 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -52.9 -53.1 -52.5 -52.5 -51.9 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 10 10 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 67 66 64 65 62 63 61 60 60 59 55 57 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 12 14 15 17 17 19 18 20 850 MB ENV VOR 106 107 107 109 98 87 73 49 27 -1 -12 -4 40 200 MB DIV 65 45 38 28 18 22 39 14 34 51 28 27 55 700-850 TADV -5 -3 0 2 1 1 0 1 3 12 15 12 5 LAND (KM) 1868 2016 1872 1770 1683 1592 1548 1498 1398 1288 1217 1177 1143 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 34.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 19 18 18 16 14 12 11 10 9 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 17 16 18 24 29 35 49 58 51 44 34 44 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 391 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 30. 43. 53. 61. 66. 69. 68. 69. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912012 INVEST 09/10/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912012 INVEST 09/10/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)