* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912012 09/09/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 40 50 58 63 66 66 66 65 66 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 40 50 58 63 66 66 66 65 66 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 40 47 54 58 59 59 59 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 7 2 1 11 18 26 28 32 27 31 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 0 3 0 -1 0 1 1 2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 61 105 127 184 334 275 278 281 271 286 304 326 324 SST (C) 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.8 27.1 27.4 27.7 27.9 28.2 28.6 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 127 128 130 128 124 125 128 131 134 136 140 145 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 129 131 129 124 124 124 126 127 126 127 129 130 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 65 60 60 60 59 58 60 59 58 57 59 64 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 105 106 108 108 112 91 69 46 23 7 6 9 6 200 MB DIV 11 18 24 38 47 46 50 45 35 25 21 38 38 700-850 TADV 0 3 2 0 0 3 8 -6 6 1 4 5 4 LAND (KM) 999 1187 1377 1590 1803 2148 1992 1904 1803 1603 1446 1396 1468 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.3 15.9 16.6 17.2 18.5 19.6 20.6 21.5 22.6 23.9 25.5 27.3 LONG(DEG W) 26.8 28.6 30.3 32.3 34.2 38.2 41.9 45.2 48.3 51.0 53.1 54.6 55.2 STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 19 20 20 19 17 16 14 13 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 16 21 20 21 10 15 25 46 51 45 38 24 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 405 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 7. 4. -1. -3. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 25. 33. 38. 41. 41. 41. 41. 41. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912012 INVEST 09/09/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912012 INVEST 09/09/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)