* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912012 09/09/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 48 56 62 65 65 64 62 60 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 39 48 56 62 65 65 64 62 60 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 39 47 52 56 56 55 53 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 9 3 1 9 14 26 28 29 31 35 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 1 0 4 0 0 -2 0 0 1 8 7 SHEAR DIR 51 57 76 101 247 284 276 279 276 295 338 347 348 SST (C) 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.9 27.2 27.4 27.7 28.1 28.3 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 126 127 129 128 126 123 126 128 130 133 139 142 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 128 130 129 126 122 122 122 122 122 125 125 125 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 9 9 700-500 MB RH 66 60 59 57 58 55 55 56 54 54 62 64 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 104 94 92 97 99 99 73 35 -3 -33 -43 -40 -58 200 MB DIV 9 3 7 8 41 41 36 49 -2 26 25 19 44 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 1 2 3 11 4 10 18 16 34 5 LAND (KM) 796 988 1183 1392 1601 2060 2107 2009 2012 1872 1823 1932 1891 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.1 15.7 16.4 17.1 18.4 19.7 20.8 22.2 23.7 25.7 28.0 30.1 LONG(DEG W) 24.9 26.7 28.5 30.4 32.3 36.5 40.3 43.5 46.3 48.6 49.9 50.0 48.3 STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 19 20 20 20 18 15 14 12 11 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 16 20 26 21 15 14 22 33 29 36 36 25 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 477 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 7. 4. 0. -4. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 23. 31. 37. 40. 40. 39. 37. 35. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912012 INVEST 09/09/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912012 INVEST 09/09/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)