* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912012 09/08/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 36 40 50 60 69 74 77 80 80 85 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 36 40 50 60 69 74 77 80 80 85 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 32 39 48 57 64 67 68 69 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 10 5 3 3 7 18 17 22 17 16 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 3 1 4 0 -2 -2 -1 0 3 1 9 SHEAR DIR 54 61 59 47 128 315 268 265 265 276 305 340 341 SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.9 27.0 26.9 26.6 26.7 27.0 27.3 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 127 126 126 128 127 124 124 126 129 133 135 138 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 127 127 129 128 124 122 121 122 123 123 124 127 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 11 11 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 65 63 61 60 59 57 56 57 54 56 58 62 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 11 12 11 11 12 14 14 15 18 16 21 850 MB ENV VOR 98 91 86 88 91 97 84 52 40 13 0 24 45 200 MB DIV 27 24 14 12 11 38 18 40 44 23 38 35 54 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 1 0 -3 0 -2 4 6 -1 6 LAND (KM) 572 762 957 1165 1375 1838 2212 2076 2003 1922 1739 1631 1621 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.9 15.4 16.1 16.8 18.1 19.5 20.6 21.5 22.5 23.8 25.3 27.0 LONG(DEG W) 22.8 24.6 26.4 28.3 30.2 34.4 38.5 42.0 45.0 47.7 50.0 51.8 53.0 STM SPEED (KT) 15 18 19 20 20 21 19 16 14 13 12 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 13 16 20 26 18 11 13 27 31 38 45 41 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 10. 9. 7. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 4. 3. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 15. 25. 35. 44. 49. 52. 55. 55. 60. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912012 INVEST 09/08/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912012 INVEST 09/08/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED