* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912012 09/08/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 38 42 52 63 71 79 84 85 85 85 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 38 42 52 63 71 79 84 85 85 85 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 30 33 37 45 56 68 80 86 87 86 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 11 6 6 4 2 4 8 13 17 15 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 2 5 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 4 1 SHEAR DIR 43 50 59 60 12 76 327 245 275 273 267 326 357 SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.9 27.0 26.9 26.6 26.9 27.2 27.5 27.7 28.0 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 130 129 127 126 127 126 123 126 128 132 134 137 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 130 128 126 127 126 122 123 123 125 126 126 127 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -52.7 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 71 67 63 63 62 60 59 57 52 54 53 52 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 10 9 10 11 12 13 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 88 89 87 88 87 93 99 98 72 48 21 1 3 200 MB DIV 14 36 29 17 6 29 44 14 15 22 40 14 42 700-850 TADV -3 0 1 2 3 1 1 0 0 -1 7 12 6 LAND (KM) 346 526 709 910 1111 1523 1956 2065 1912 1826 1739 1598 1445 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.8 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.8 17.6 18.5 19.2 20.0 20.7 21.6 22.6 LONG(DEG W) 20.7 22.4 24.1 26.0 27.8 31.6 35.6 39.4 42.6 45.6 48.4 50.8 52.6 STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 18 18 18 19 19 17 15 14 13 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 10 12 15 16 14 20 20 18 26 43 62 37 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 440 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 27. 38. 46. 54. 59. 60. 60. 60. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912012 INVEST 09/08/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912012 INVEST 09/08/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED