* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912012 08/03/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 26 28 30 35 41 45 49 53 58 59 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 26 24 26 32 37 42 46 50 55 46 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 20 24 29 32 37 42 48 55 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 15 16 9 7 9 8 12 11 12 4 10 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -1 1 2 0 -2 -1 -5 -1 -5 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 262 223 227 232 208 178 94 134 109 107 216 216 257 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 150 150 150 149 151 151 149 150 150 150 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 131 132 131 131 130 131 129 126 125 124 124 122 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -52.4 -52.4 -51.8 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 11 11 12 11 13 10 12 7 12 7 700-500 MB RH 62 63 65 64 61 61 62 59 57 53 52 48 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -75 -64 -52 -68 -79 -59 -83 -63 -41 -23 -18 -10 -18 200 MB DIV 24 14 20 2 -20 15 -15 20 21 20 -7 4 -24 700-850 TADV 0 4 1 -2 1 0 -1 -2 0 -1 -1 -2 0 LAND (KM) 189 166 96 32 -30 -22 69 147 139 100 61 8 -7 LAT (DEG N) 24.0 24.5 25.0 25.5 25.9 26.8 27.7 28.4 29.0 29.5 29.8 30.1 30.3 LONG(DEG W) 78.5 79.0 79.5 80.0 80.5 81.9 83.5 85.1 86.6 87.9 88.8 89.6 90.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 7 8 8 8 7 5 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 112 67 91 80 52 4 29 33 29 32 40 27 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 715 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 12. 19. 24. 29. 32. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 9. 8. 9. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 8. 10. 15. 21. 25. 29. 33. 38. 39. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912012 INVEST 08/03/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 80.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912012 INVEST 08/03/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)