* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912012 04/19/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 35 34 35 35 37 36 33 26 23 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 35 34 35 35 37 36 33 26 23 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 29 29 29 30 33 38 44 49 49 47 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT SUBT SHEAR (KT) 34 36 36 35 34 28 22 17 15 19 24 24 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 5 4 1 1 -3 -4 -4 -2 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 285 286 289 289 277 282 272 270 266 295 323 9 35 SST (C) 21.2 21.2 21.2 20.6 20.0 19.0 18.2 17.5 16.9 16.3 14.9 11.0 5.3 POT. INT. (KT) 84 86 86 84 82 78 75 72 70 69 68 65 63 ADJ. POT. INT. 77 81 80 79 76 73 70 67 65 64 64 63 N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.5 -57.6 -57.3 -57.5 -57.6 -57.7 -58.5 -59.0 -59.8 -59.9 -60.4 -60.2 -60.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 31 34 38 43 50 59 65 68 61 50 40 35 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 10 10 9 8 7 6 6 5 4 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 108 104 82 77 76 42 37 -7 -24 -63 -104 -122 -128 200 MB DIV -9 -4 0 11 8 30 28 12 14 -37 -58 -32 6 700-850 TADV 2 0 5 -2 1 12 14 0 0 0 1 7 -3 LAND (KM) 1627 1774 1919 1855 1809 1658 1501 1357 1224 1106 938 719 498 LAT (DEG N) 29.6 29.6 29.5 30.3 31.1 33.5 36.0 38.2 39.8 40.8 41.7 43.0 44.9 LONG(DEG W) 55.5 53.3 51.1 49.1 47.1 44.0 42.1 41.2 41.3 42.0 43.6 45.6 47.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 19 19 19 18 16 13 10 7 6 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):120/ 10 CX,CY: 9/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 757 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. 0. 2. 4. 4. 3. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 22. 27. 33. 39. 43. 44. 45. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -19. -23. -26. -30. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 5. 5. 7. 6. 3. -4. -7. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912012 INVEST 04/19/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912012 INVEST 04/19/12 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912012 INVEST 04/19/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)