* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912012 04/19/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 33 33 34 35 36 37 38 34 31 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 33 33 34 35 36 37 38 34 31 V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 27 26 26 26 28 33 39 46 51 52 50 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT SHEAR (KT) 40 39 39 38 31 24 22 22 17 13 12 21 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 1 2 1 -3 -6 -5 -2 -2 -2 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 303 291 288 287 286 276 251 245 243 257 305 333 333 SST (C) 20.6 20.6 20.6 19.9 19.3 18.7 18.2 17.8 17.5 16.9 16.1 15.0 12.6 POT. INT. (KT) 82 85 84 81 79 76 73 70 70 69 67 66 64 ADJ. POT. INT. 76 80 78 76 73 70 67 64 64 64 63 62 61 200 MB T (C) -57.2 -57.7 -57.6 -57.8 -57.9 -57.1 -57.1 -57.6 -57.7 -56.8 -58.6 -59.9 -59.6 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 31 34 39 49 54 61 61 52 49 46 42 42 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 10 9 9 8 7 6 6 6 5 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 131 124 117 99 90 81 66 37 9 -7 -33 -59 -68 200 MB DIV -16 15 15 2 17 19 8 -2 8 -21 -25 -13 -10 700-850 TADV 1 0 2 2 0 0 -5 -1 3 3 5 0 0 LAND (KM) 1631 1777 1829 1712 1606 1400 1255 1156 1082 989 903 817 695 LAT (DEG N) 30.3 30.3 30.3 31.5 32.7 35.0 36.8 37.8 38.3 38.8 39.2 39.8 40.8 LONG(DEG W) 56.4 53.9 51.3 49.9 48.4 46.9 45.8 45.8 46.4 47.5 48.8 49.6 50.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 22 18 17 15 11 7 4 4 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):120/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 770 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 1.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. 1. 3. 3. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 3. -3. -6. -8. -7. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 22. 26. 32. 36. 38. 39. 40. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -15. -19. -23. -26. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 4. 1. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912012 INVEST 04/19/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912012 INVEST 04/19/12 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912012 INVEST 04/19/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)