* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912012 04/17/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 41 40 35 30 25 21 19 18 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 41 40 35 30 25 21 19 18 16 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 41 41 41 42 42 42 43 44 45 46 46 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 35 38 39 37 29 37 34 34 33 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -4 1 -3 6 -1 4 2 0 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 16 5 348 342 332 310 297 295 289 282 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 18.9 19.1 19.5 19.9 20.2 21.2 21.9 21.9 21.4 20.8 19.7 19.0 18.5 POT. INT. (KT) 76 76 77 78 80 84 87 88 86 83 79 76 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 70 70 70 71 72 76 80 80 79 77 73 70 68 200 MB T (C) -56.4 -56.1 -56.4 -56.8 -57.0 -57.6 -57.3 -57.0 -56.9 -56.9 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 2 2 2 3 4 5 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 44 43 42 37 30 25 27 34 42 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 22 20 19 17 17 13 10 8 7 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 132 125 125 120 112 102 87 64 47 39 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 -25 -11 -43 -33 -49 -28 -33 -17 -6 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 -6 -1 2 3 3 6 1 0 7 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1169 1167 1174 1242 1314 1461 1456 1653 1936 1929 1851 1767 1671 LAT (DEG N) 35.1 34.6 34.1 33.3 32.4 30.2 28.7 28.5 28.9 29.9 31.3 32.9 34.4 LONG(DEG W) 57.3 58.3 59.3 59.8 60.3 59.4 57.0 53.9 50.6 47.5 44.9 42.8 41.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 10 12 13 14 14 14 12 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -8. -7. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -3. -10. -16. -20. -23. -25. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 5. 8. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 29. 31. 31. 31. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -13. -16. -18. -21. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -11. -13. -15. -17. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 0. -5. -10. -15. -19. -21. -22. -24. -26. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912012 INVEST 04/17/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -22.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 2.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912012 INVEST 04/17/12 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912012 INVEST 04/17/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)