* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912012 04/17/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 41 40 36 30 24 20 18 17 15 DIS V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 41 40 36 30 24 20 18 17 15 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 41 41 41 41 41 41 43 45 47 48 49 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 28 34 39 41 37 33 33 31 32 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -3 -4 1 1 0 0 3 -1 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 50 15 5 346 342 318 288 293 288 275 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 18.7 18.8 18.8 19.0 19.3 19.9 20.6 20.9 20.4 19.6 18.9 18.1 17.7 POT. INT. (KT) 76 76 75 76 76 78 81 83 82 79 76 73 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 70 69 69 69 69 70 73 76 76 74 71 67 65 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -56.4 -56.4 -56.6 -57.0 -58.3 -58.5 -57.6 -57.1 -56.9 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 45 42 42 42 38 31 27 36 43 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 24 22 20 19 17 15 12 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 154 136 125 123 114 90 60 56 57 58 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -16 0 -18 -3 -34 -57 -49 -42 -12 -18 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -12 -9 -4 0 3 2 2 1 2 -4 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1205 1165 1120 1104 1096 1196 1388 1553 1681 1605 1477 1373 1303 LAT (DEG N) 35.3 35.3 35.3 35.0 34.6 33.3 31.6 30.6 30.9 32.3 33.8 35.2 36.1 LONG(DEG W) 55.4 56.7 57.9 59.0 60.0 61.1 60.7 58.3 54.9 51.6 48.9 47.1 46.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 8 8 9 13 15 15 12 8 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 692 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -9. -6. -5. -5. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. -2. -8. -14. -17. -20. -22. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 5. 9. 12. 17. 22. 25. 28. 32. 34. 33. 34. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -18. -21. -23. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -14. -16. -17. -18. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 0. -4. -10. -16. -20. -22. -23. -25. -27. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912012 INVEST 04/17/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 3.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912012 INVEST 04/17/12 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912012 INVEST 04/17/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)