* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902013 12/06/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 41 40 38 36 35 43 40 53 51 50 V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 41 40 38 36 35 43 40 53 51 50 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 40 40 40 40 41 45 51 56 58 59 DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 43 49 50 45 39 28 23 11 27 44 51 59 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -2 -1 0 -1 7 10 19 20 26 N/A SHEAR DIR 303 295 296 297 294 279 281 272 228 218 196 211 N/A SST (C) 21.2 20.8 20.2 19.5 18.9 18.0 17.1 15.6 13.0 11.6 9.5 4.0 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 81 80 78 77 76 74 73 73 72 71 70 68 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 71 71 70 70 69 68 69 69 70 69 68 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -60.8 -61.1 -61.2 -61.7 -62.0 -61.9 -62.6 -62.4 -61.3 -61.7 -63.2 -63.6 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 46 48 49 49 49 54 65 69 74 77 83 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 21 19 17 14 12 9 6 5 10 7 20 21 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 118 83 47 18 0 -49 -88 -17 55 78 158 171 N/A 200 MB DIV -50 -46 -24 -9 15 -15 63 50 86 97 -69 -155 N/A 700-850 TADV 0 5 6 5 7 14 26 31 10 9 -111 -146 N/A LAND (KM) 1502 1514 1528 1522 1486 1448 1397 1285 819 589 633 844 N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.5 35.1 35.6 36.5 37.4 39.5 42.0 45.3 50.1 55.8 61.3 65.9 N/A LONG(DEG W) 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.1 26.0 26.1 24.9 21.6 18.6 14.9 8.7 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 9 10 11 15 21 28 29 28 27 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -8. -12. -17. -21. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 3. 7. 12. 16. 25. 33. 39. 46. 52. 58. 60. 62. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -16. -20. -24. -27. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -16. -18. -13. -17. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -4. -5. 3. 0. 13. 11. 10. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902013 INVEST 12/06/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 45.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.6/ -0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -22.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902013 INVEST 12/06/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)