* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902013 12/06/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 42 41 38 35 32 40 40 43 49 45 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 42 41 38 35 32 40 40 43 49 45 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 41 41 41 41 41 44 50 55 58 57 59 Storm Type SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 39 42 49 50 45 31 26 13 24 41 63 57 67 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 -3 -2 1 -4 4 9 19 28 21 26 SHEAR DIR 305 303 295 296 297 288 271 297 230 219 202 203 217 SST (C) 21.5 21.1 20.8 20.1 19.5 18.4 17.5 16.4 14.2 12.0 9.9 7.7 5.1 POT. INT. (KT) 81 80 80 78 77 75 73 73 72 72 70 69 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 71 71 71 70 70 69 68 69 69 70 69 67 N/A 200 MB T (C) -60.7 -60.9 -61.0 -61.3 -61.8 -62.1 -62.5 -62.6 -61.6 -60.9 -62.2 -63.0 -64.4 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 48 46 47 48 49 53 60 67 72 75 79 80 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 21 19 17 14 10 7 4 9 9 13 22 18 850 MB ENV VOR 132 116 83 46 16 -28 -79 -40 27 86 105 174 87 200 MB DIV -37 -52 -48 -23 -10 -4 38 45 68 83 117 -95 -284 700-850 TADV 1 -1 5 6 5 7 19 10 75 13 -105 -94 -185 LAND (KM) 1513 1511 1511 1532 1509 1447 1435 1384 1101 715 688 725 1000 LAT (DEG N) 34.2 34.6 35.0 35.8 36.5 38.6 40.8 43.6 47.5 52.9 58.7 63.8 67.5 LONG(DEG W) 27.1 26.9 26.6 26.4 26.1 25.9 26.2 26.2 23.9 20.8 17.6 12.9 4.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 6 8 9 10 12 17 25 30 29 26 25 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -6. -9. -13. -17. -22. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 3. 7. 12. 16. 25. 33. 39. 45. 51. 56. 58. 62. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -20. -23. -27. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -6. -11. -17. -21. -16. -17. -12. -4. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -8. 0. 0. 3. 9. 5. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902013 INVEST 12/06/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 45.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.6/ -0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -34.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902013 INVEST 12/06/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)