* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902013 12/05/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 42 41 38 34 30 30 38 43 48 34 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 42 41 38 34 30 30 38 43 48 34 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 41 42 43 44 43 43 45 51 57 57 54 Storm Type SUBT SUBT EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 29 38 44 49 43 39 35 26 32 60 81 77 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -7 -2 -2 -1 2 0 -4 -6 6 28 25 27 SHEAR DIR 296 301 307 299 297 294 284 264 263 220 211 199 214 SST (C) 21.8 21.7 21.5 21.3 21.1 19.8 18.5 17.5 16.6 14.3 11.1 9.9 8.2 POT. INT. (KT) 82 82 81 80 81 78 75 73 73 73 71 70 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 72 71 70 70 72 71 69 68 69 70 69 68 67 200 MB T (C) -59.5 -60.0 -60.6 -60.9 -61.1 -61.8 -62.1 -62.8 -63.6 -62.1 -59.9 -60.1 -60.5 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 56 54 51 49 54 56 56 65 70 71 73 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 24 22 20 17 13 10 7 4 9 15 26 16 850 MB ENV VOR 179 148 125 105 77 26 -9 -72 -29 55 184 191 202 200 MB DIV -5 -39 -37 -50 -58 -14 4 32 65 75 109 108 -64 700-850 TADV 2 3 2 0 7 8 9 17 6 -6 3 -86 -54 LAND (KM) 1535 1549 1564 1569 1575 1610 1554 1547 1500 1210 892 876 840 LAT (DEG N) 33.7 34.0 34.2 34.5 34.8 36.3 38.4 40.6 43.3 47.5 53.3 59.1 63.9 LONG(DEG W) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.2 27.1 27.5 27.6 25.6 23.5 20.8 16.0 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 3 3 6 9 10 13 17 26 30 28 26 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 725 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -8. -8. -8. -9. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -3. -9. -14. -17. -21. -28. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 3. 7. 11. 15. 23. 31. 37. 44. 50. 54. 55. 57. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -14. -19. -22. -26. -28. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -6. -12. -17. -21. -24. -19. -14. -3. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -10. -10. -2. 3. 8. -6. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902013 INVEST 12/05/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.3/ -0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -37.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902013 INVEST 12/05/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)