* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902013 12/05/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 50 49 45 41 35 35 38 44 42 43 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 50 49 45 41 35 35 38 44 42 43 V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 49 51 52 52 50 47 47 51 57 60 63 Storm Type EXTP SUBT SUBT EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 19 31 38 44 48 39 39 25 23 50 65 76 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -7 -3 -1 -1 0 -2 -3 -3 19 25 29 SHEAR DIR 278 290 300 305 299 295 295 272 252 236 206 191 197 SST (C) 21.9 21.8 21.7 21.5 21.4 20.6 19.1 18.0 17.0 15.6 12.3 10.3 8.3 POT. INT. (KT) 83 82 82 81 81 80 76 74 73 74 72 71 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 73 71 71 70 71 71 70 68 69 70 70 69 68 200 MB T (C) -58.2 -59.1 -59.7 -60.3 -60.4 -61.4 -62.2 -62.2 -63.0 -62.4 -60.4 -60.6 -60.6 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 57 55 55 51 51 53 52 53 66 68 67 72 GFS VTEX (KT) 28 26 24 22 20 15 11 8 6 5 11 11 13 850 MB ENV VOR 209 187 159 130 105 49 15 -40 -56 38 125 151 190 200 MB DIV 2 -7 -34 -32 -50 -30 4 -8 70 57 103 107 -39 700-850 TADV 3 1 2 2 0 7 11 12 29 -2 0 -262 -172 LAND (KM) 1533 1539 1547 1557 1565 1604 1618 1655 1673 1533 1059 889 895 LAT (DEG N) 33.5 33.7 33.9 34.2 34.4 35.4 37.3 39.4 41.7 45.4 51.2 57.2 62.5 LONG(DEG W) 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.6 28.4 29.4 28.6 25.6 22.9 19.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 3 3 4 7 10 12 15 24 31 30 28 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -13. -13. -13. -12. -12. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -4. -10. -14. -16. -18. -23. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 3. 7. 11. 15. 22. 30. 35. 42. 48. 52. 53. 55. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -18. -22. -25. -28. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -11. -17. -21. -24. -25. -18. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 4. 0. -4. -10. -10. -7. -1. -3. -2. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902013 INVEST 12/05/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -24.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902013 INVEST 12/05/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)