* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902013 12/05/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 50 50 47 41 34 29 27 35 35 35 V (KT) LAND 45 46 48 50 50 47 41 34 29 27 35 35 35 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 47 50 52 54 52 48 45 45 46 50 54 Storm Type EXTP EXTP SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 18 29 39 51 49 46 47 36 28 47 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -6 -8 -4 -4 -2 0 -4 -7 7 2 27 SHEAR DIR 269 279 295 303 308 299 299 303 293 274 244 215 194 SST (C) 22.1 21.9 21.7 21.5 21.3 20.8 20.2 19.6 18.9 18.0 16.5 13.7 11.9 POT. INT. (KT) 85 83 82 82 81 80 78 76 75 75 75 73 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 74 73 72 72 71 71 70 68 68 69 70 71 71 200 MB T (C) -57.5 -58.0 -58.9 -59.6 -60.2 -60.6 -61.7 -62.0 -62.6 -63.0 -63.2 -62.0 -61.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 59 60 59 57 48 46 45 50 59 69 68 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 30 28 26 24 22 17 13 9 7 5 9 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 218 208 187 162 143 79 20 -20 -45 -52 8 49 93 200 MB DIV 8 8 0 -25 -29 -40 -43 -23 -6 17 32 74 78 700-850 TADV 9 3 2 3 2 3 5 6 10 26 27 -24 -319 LAND (KM) 1482 1466 1452 1425 1394 1366 1362 1311 1276 1309 1225 939 604 LAT (DEG N) 33.0 33.3 33.5 33.7 33.8 34.4 35.4 36.5 37.9 39.9 43.2 48.3 54.8 LONG(DEG W) 27.5 27.2 26.8 26.4 25.9 25.2 24.4 23.8 23.8 24.4 24.2 22.1 19.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 9 14 21 30 33 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -13. -12. -12. -12. -13. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -4. -11. -17. -22. -23. -26. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 3. 6. 11. 15. 22. 29. 34. 40. 46. 52. 54. 56. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -13. -17. -20. -23. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -11. -17. -21. -24. -27. -22. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 5. 2. -4. -11. -16. -18. -10. -10. -10. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902013 INVEST 12/05/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902013 INVEST 12/05/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)