* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902013 12/04/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 53 55 57 55 50 43 36 30 30 35 37 V (KT) LAND 50 51 53 55 57 55 50 43 36 30 30 35 37 V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 53 56 58 60 59 55 50 46 45 47 50 Storm Type EXTP SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 12 14 13 18 37 45 45 47 46 32 32 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -4 -7 -6 -5 -3 0 -1 0 -5 -2 22 SHEAR DIR 246 249 265 291 301 306 299 303 293 290 250 213 200 SST (C) 22.5 22.3 22.1 21.9 21.6 21.3 20.9 20.1 19.2 18.6 17.6 16.3 13.4 POT. INT. (KT) 86 87 85 84 82 80 79 77 75 75 74 74 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 75 76 75 74 72 70 70 69 68 69 69 70 70 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -56.8 -57.5 -58.1 -59.1 -60.2 -60.8 -61.3 -61.5 -61.8 -61.9 -62.0 -59.3 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 52 57 62 60 58 49 48 49 50 52 63 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 31 29 28 27 26 22 18 14 10 7 6 9 18 850 MB ENV VOR 202 215 217 209 185 140 86 27 -13 -41 -30 76 187 200 MB DIV 21 8 7 4 -17 -26 -46 -56 -32 -7 59 59 114 700-850 TADV -1 2 6 4 4 1 2 4 1 6 11 44 80 LAND (KM) 1477 1450 1425 1424 1426 1420 1442 1481 1475 1515 1625 1609 1285 LAT (DEG N) 31.8 32.3 32.7 33.2 33.6 34.0 34.6 35.6 36.8 38.1 40.2 43.7 49.1 LONG(DEG W) 28.1 27.6 27.0 26.7 26.4 26.1 26.0 25.8 25.8 26.6 28.3 29.0 27.9 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 6 5 3 3 4 6 7 10 15 22 27 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):150/ 8 CX,CY: 4/ -6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 766 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -9. -13. -15. -16. -16. -17. -17. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. -1. -6. -11. -16. -18. -20. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 6. 10. 14. 21. 27. 32. 38. 43. 47. 49. 50. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -13. -16. -20. -22. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -8. -14. -18. -22. -25. -26. -22. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 5. 0. -7. -14. -20. -20. -15. -13. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902013 INVEST 12/04/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902013 INVEST 12/04/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)