* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902013 12/04/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 52 55 57 57 54 49 42 37 35 35 35 V (KT) LAND 50 51 52 55 57 57 54 49 42 37 35 35 35 V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 53 55 58 62 62 60 54 50 47 47 50 Storm Type EXTP SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 13 13 13 28 38 49 44 49 37 20 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 -4 -7 -7 -3 -2 2 0 2 5 9 SHEAR DIR 228 249 248 267 292 303 304 301 301 285 267 271 215 SST (C) 22.4 22.4 22.3 22.1 22.0 21.6 21.4 20.9 20.2 19.4 18.5 17.2 15.5 POT. INT. (KT) 86 85 85 85 84 81 80 79 78 76 76 75 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 75 74 75 75 73 71 70 70 69 69 70 70 70 200 MB T (C) -56.6 -56.8 -57.1 -57.7 -58.1 -59.5 -60.5 -61.1 -61.4 -60.7 -61.3 -61.7 -59.8 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 0 700-500 MB RH 42 47 53 59 62 62 54 50 53 48 44 54 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 33 31 29 29 28 24 20 17 13 11 8 7 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 200 210 222 220 208 168 123 75 40 -2 -11 56 131 200 MB DIV 6 13 6 4 6 -15 -22 -38 -18 -20 24 75 92 700-850 TADV -4 -1 2 5 2 1 1 5 7 1 14 24 -29 LAND (KM) 1525 1499 1473 1458 1446 1428 1411 1420 1475 1515 1581 1644 1514 LAT (DEG N) 32.1 32.2 32.3 32.7 33.1 33.5 33.8 34.5 35.5 36.6 38.3 41.2 45.6 LONG(DEG W) 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.4 27.0 26.5 26.1 25.8 25.8 26.2 27.4 28.9 28.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 4 5 4 3 3 4 6 8 13 18 22 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):200/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ -8 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 796 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -9. -13. -15. -16. -16. -16. -17. -18. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -4. -10. -15. -18. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 6. 10. 13. 20. 26. 31. 37. 42. 46. 47. 48. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -13. -16. -19. -22. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -8. -13. -17. -21. -24. -26. -26. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 7. 4. -1. -8. -13. -15. -15. -15. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902013 INVEST 12/04/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902013 INVEST 12/04/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)