* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902013 11/29/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 42 38 30 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 42 38 30 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 34 36 36 32 27 23 26 DIS DIS Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 40 34 20 19 44 59 54 50 52 57 85 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -2 -5 -2 -3 3 -2 1 3 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 235 235 245 312 335 323 282 271 270 259 254 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.8 25.7 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.7 25.8 25.5 24.4 20.8 21.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 109 109 107 106 105 111 116 117 109 91 93 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 95 95 93 91 89 98 111 123 115 91 93 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -54.9 -54.8 -55.5 -56.1 -56.2 -56.1 -56.1 -56.6 -57.1 -56.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 63 65 65 63 42 25 24 39 54 42 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 12 13 14 13 8 5 4 2 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 168 175 186 192 197 149 112 43 6 7 -17 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 17 15 27 -27 -67 -81 -68 -26 -1 -23 -28 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -8 -5 -9 -9 51 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2288 2284 2282 2308 2333 2346 2138 1523 555 -318 -999 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.2 25.8 26.4 26.8 27.1 26.0 23.7 22.2 23.0 24.5 25.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 39.1 39.0 38.9 39.1 39.3 39.6 37.7 31.7 22.2 11.6 0.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 4 2 9 21 36 47 50 52 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 765 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 9. 13. 15. 16. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 1. -8. -20. -30. -40. -50. -54. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 15. 18. 20. 20. 21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -13. -16. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 12. 8. 0. -7. -15. -25. -36. -37. -40. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902013 INVEST 11/29/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ -0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902013 INVEST 11/29/13 00 UTC ## ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902013 INVEST 11/29/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)