* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902013 11/28/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 40 39 32 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 40 39 32 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 32 33 34 35 32 27 22 24 DIS DIS Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 74 57 48 35 20 56 62 50 50 57 73 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -17 -6 -7 -6 -4 -4 2 4 -3 0 6 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 244 243 235 248 294 340 293 276 271 272 255 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.8 25.7 25.6 25.5 25.5 25.6 25.9 25.9 25.6 22.5 21.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 109 109 108 107 106 108 113 117 119 98 93 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 95 95 94 93 90 93 102 113 128 101 94 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.2 -55.0 -55.2 -55.7 -56.2 -56.1 -56.3 -56.1 -56.4 -56.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 6 4 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 64 66 63 65 52 31 21 20 40 58 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 132 162 164 175 178 167 114 68 6 -13 -52 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 15 14 35 -42 -87 -84 -47 -28 5 -4 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 1 1 2 2 -2 -1 -7 -8 -10 41 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2265 2264 2265 2292 2320 2366 2357 2115 1493 231 -802 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.8 25.4 25.9 26.4 26.9 26.7 25.0 22.8 21.1 21.5 24.0 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 38.9 38.9 38.8 39.0 39.2 39.7 39.8 37.5 31.4 19.2 4.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 5 5 3 5 11 22 43 63 69 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 784 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 8. 12. 16. 16. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -12. -25. -36. -46. -55. -58. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 17. 19. 19. 20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -12. -15. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 10. 9. 2. -6. -13. -22. -32. -35. -38. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902013 INVEST 11/28/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 46.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.7/ -0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902013 INVEST 11/28/13 18 UTC ## ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902013 INVEST 11/28/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)