* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902013 10/21/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 40 43 44 41 36 33 32 32 32 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 40 43 44 41 36 33 32 32 32 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 37 38 42 43 43 41 38 37 37 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 8 12 16 17 21 25 22 29 22 14 8 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -2 -2 -3 0 1 6 0 -2 -1 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 287 281 276 300 311 323 340 351 9 47 53 62 96 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.2 27.3 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 130 129 128 128 125 123 121 120 123 125 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 114 112 110 110 111 109 105 102 99 104 106 105 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.2 -55.3 -55.6 -55.8 -55.9 -55.8 -55.4 -55.2 -54.9 -55.0 -54.6 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 55 53 55 52 49 44 42 39 33 33 32 34 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -126 -119 -108 -102 -90 -76 -79 -96 -119 -107 -123 -133 -184 200 MB DIV -23 2 5 -19 -19 -47 -17 -6 -43 -63 -15 -21 -25 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 4 5 1 14 5 5 2 -3 -1 -6 LAND (KM) 1483 1565 1646 1723 1800 1922 1958 2044 2117 2174 2191 2141 2042 LAT (DEG N) 27.7 28.3 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.1 28.7 28.3 28.0 28.2 28.9 LONG(DEG W) 55.4 54.9 54.4 53.6 52.8 50.7 48.2 46.3 45.2 44.7 45.2 46.3 47.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 10 10 7 4 1 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 17 14 12 9 7 8 7 5 4 4 5 8 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 15. 17. 18. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 0. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 13. 14. 11. 6. 3. 2. 2. 2. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902013 INVEST 10/21/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902013 INVEST 10/21/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902013 INVEST 10/21/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)