* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902013 10/21/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 35 39 40 38 32 26 23 23 24 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 35 39 40 38 32 26 23 23 24 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 33 36 36 34 31 27 26 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 11 6 11 19 16 29 30 38 37 22 13 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -4 -3 -2 -2 -1 2 5 3 -4 0 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 265 292 307 280 304 308 323 329 340 2 15 18 358 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.5 26.2 26.3 26.5 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 134 132 129 131 130 127 120 115 114 116 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 118 114 112 109 113 114 112 105 99 96 98 101 200 MB T (C) -55.6 -55.3 -55.2 -55.1 -55.4 -55.7 -55.9 -55.5 -55.4 -54.8 -55.0 -54.6 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 5 4 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 60 59 58 60 57 53 47 45 41 42 42 43 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 6 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -118 -120 -104 -90 -92 -87 -100 -111 -137 -134 -137 -137 -147 200 MB DIV -16 -15 7 6 -3 -47 -26 8 -34 -82 -42 -21 -26 700-850 TADV 1 2 1 0 2 3 11 13 17 16 4 0 -4 LAND (KM) 1387 1426 1469 1530 1591 1716 1802 1805 1868 1984 2123 2169 2146 LAT (DEG N) 27.0 27.7 28.4 28.9 29.4 29.8 30.5 30.8 30.9 30.6 29.7 29.1 28.9 LONG(DEG W) 56.0 56.2 56.4 56.1 55.8 54.4 52.0 48.8 45.7 43.2 42.0 42.4 43.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 9 12 13 12 9 4 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 25 16 12 10 8 5 4 2 5 3 1 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 18. 21. 23. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 4. -1. -7. -9. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -9. -10. -12. -14. -16. -16. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 10. 14. 15. 13. 7. 1. -2. -2. -1. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902013 INVEST 10/21/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902013 INVEST 10/21/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902013 INVEST 10/21/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)