* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902013 10/21/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 39 41 39 37 32 29 28 28 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 39 41 39 37 32 29 28 28 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 33 36 37 37 35 32 30 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 11 8 15 22 26 33 32 36 27 19 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -5 -4 -4 -3 0 -2 0 0 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 248 260 296 280 283 323 305 319 326 350 10 20 29 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.1 26.6 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 135 134 131 129 130 127 120 116 114 114 116 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 121 116 114 111 111 114 112 105 99 96 95 97 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.1 -55.1 -54.9 -55.0 -55.6 -55.8 -56.3 -56.0 -55.7 -55.2 -55.2 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 6 5 4 4 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 58 57 57 57 60 54 51 47 45 41 41 41 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -115 -127 -119 -113 -103 -100 -89 -90 -113 -136 -132 -150 -139 200 MB DIV -7 -14 -3 3 1 -33 -65 -15 2 -21 -48 -18 -15 700-850 TADV -2 1 3 0 0 4 2 17 8 7 3 0 0 LAND (KM) 1388 1416 1450 1519 1589 1732 1802 1807 1924 2024 2116 2154 2143 LAT (DEG N) 26.5 27.3 28.0 28.7 29.3 30.0 30.5 30.8 30.4 30.0 29.5 29.1 29.0 LONG(DEG W) 55.5 55.9 56.2 56.0 55.7 54.4 52.1 48.7 45.6 43.8 42.7 42.8 43.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 7 6 8 13 14 11 6 3 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 32 22 14 11 9 5 4 2 5 2 1 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 19. 22. 23. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 4. 0. -6. -9. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -16. -16. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 16. 14. 12. 7. 4. 3. 3. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902013 INVEST 10/21/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902013 INVEST 10/21/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902013 INVEST 10/21/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)