* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902013 07/27/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 31 33 36 37 33 28 24 21 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 31 33 31 30 30 30 30 30 30 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 28 29 29 30 30 30 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 10 10 15 30 36 48 39 34 27 17 15 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 2 5 2 1 -6 -1 -1 -5 -7 -6 -2 SHEAR DIR 305 255 253 207 214 220 211 195 191 200 205 221 239 SST (C) 27.6 27.3 26.3 23.9 20.9 15.9 13.9 11.2 7.5 5.1 3.7 3.0 2.2 POT. INT. (KT) 133 130 119 101 85 72 69 67 63 61 59 58 59 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 112 104 89 77 68 66 64 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -55.3 -54.9 -54.7 -54.4 -53.6 -53.0 -52.2 -50.7 -49.7 -49.4 -49.5 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 5 4 5 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 57 59 59 60 65 68 68 66 60 57 59 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -51 -41 -29 -14 5 41 69 70 77 75 61 71 200 MB DIV 43 32 38 45 57 52 69 50 77 49 46 25 2 700-850 TADV 1 7 2 -10 22 3 35 -9 -2 -5 -5 -13 -18 LAND (KM) 259 285 247 137 19 -90 -1 -215 -357 -229 -188 -142 -71 LAT (DEG N) 35.1 36.6 38.1 40.0 41.8 45.3 48.7 51.9 54.4 56.0 56.8 56.8 56.4 LONG(DEG W) 73.1 72.6 72.1 71.2 70.2 68.7 67.9 67.4 66.6 65.5 64.8 64.0 62.9 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 18 20 19 18 17 15 10 7 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 14 8 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 17 CX,CY: 6/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 10. 11. 10. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 4. 6. 9. 12. 12. 6. 0. -5. -7. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 15. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -19. -22. -26. -28. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 8. 3. -1. -4. -8. -13. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902013 INVEST 07/27/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902013 INVEST 07/27/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902013 INVEST 07/27/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)