* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902013 07/27/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 37 37 35 30 25 23 19 15 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 37 31 29 30 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 28 29 31 29 29 30 30 30 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 6 10 10 15 34 44 41 38 30 16 12 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -9 -2 -1 2 4 0 -1 0 0 -4 -8 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 323 307 252 250 204 222 206 202 190 194 195 212 240 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.5 26.7 25.0 19.6 15.5 13.3 10.3 7.0 5.1 4.4 4.7 POT. INT. (KT) 130 132 132 124 108 81 72 69 65 62 60 57 57 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 113 114 107 94 74 68 66 63 61 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -55.7 -55.2 -54.9 -54.6 -53.7 -53.2 -52.5 -51.6 -50.0 -49.2 -49.2 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 5 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 56 59 61 63 65 67 68 69 64 58 59 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 5 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -46 -28 -45 -39 -31 4 35 66 79 92 77 60 73 200 MB DIV 9 45 43 32 45 49 55 70 53 72 33 30 8 700-850 TADV 6 2 7 2 -14 20 35 17 -6 -4 -1 -10 -13 LAND (KM) 276 228 232 239 190 67 -182 -22 -280 -296 -254 -268 -266 LAT (DEG N) 33.5 34.7 35.9 37.6 39.2 42.7 46.3 49.7 52.6 54.8 56.1 56.5 56.3 LONG(DEG W) 73.9 73.6 73.3 72.6 71.8 70.0 68.6 67.4 66.4 65.9 65.9 66.1 66.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 15 18 18 18 18 16 13 9 4 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 9 11 9 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 11. 12. 12. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 11. 5. -1. -6. -8. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -17. -21. -24. -27. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 13. 10. 5. 0. -2. -6. -10. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902013 INVEST 07/27/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902013 INVEST 07/27/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902013 INVEST 07/27/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)