* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902012 10/22/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 40 44 51 56 59 62 61 60 59 59 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 40 44 51 56 59 62 61 60 59 59 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 37 40 44 49 52 53 53 52 51 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 8 16 13 16 19 25 34 47 41 47 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 0 -2 -2 -1 2 -2 -6 -4 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 341 353 311 316 324 255 252 230 217 229 233 248 263 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.4 25.3 24.1 23.1 22.2 22.0 21.6 POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 133 130 127 125 120 111 103 96 91 87 85 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 122 120 116 114 113 110 102 95 89 83 78 75 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -56.1 -56.1 -56.0 -55.9 -55.9 -56.0 -56.1 -56.7 -57.2 -58.4 -59.3 -61.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 9 9 8 7 7 5 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 43 45 46 48 49 43 36 29 34 37 44 40 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 8 9 8 7 7 7 6 7 7 9 850 MB ENV VOR 11 -3 -14 -20 -22 -7 -17 -33 -22 -23 0 18 61 200 MB DIV -18 0 -3 -19 -8 35 24 84 78 69 44 41 66 700-850 TADV 3 2 8 11 4 3 -5 2 -5 -17 -5 -2 9 LAND (KM) 1521 1506 1497 1539 1584 1799 2126 2101 2128 2025 1717 1512 1374 LAT (DEG N) 21.3 22.2 23.0 23.9 24.7 26.5 27.9 29.3 30.9 32.5 34.2 35.6 37.0 LONG(DEG W) 51.5 51.9 52.2 52.1 52.0 50.6 47.7 43.7 39.2 34.1 29.6 26.2 24.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 9 9 12 17 20 22 22 18 12 9 HEAT CONTENT 40 38 41 45 49 15 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 16. 19. 19. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. 1. -4. -9. -13. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 14. 18. 21. 26. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 14. 21. 26. 29. 32. 31. 30. 29. 29. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902012 INVEST 10/22/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902012 INVEST 10/22/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)