* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902012 10/22/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 43 46 46 40 36 37 40 38 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 43 46 46 40 36 37 40 38 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 33 35 35 33 30 27 26 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 11 11 20 27 40 46 56 37 33 43 57 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -1 1 0 -3 -6 -5 -9 1 1 -2 -13 SHEAR DIR 302 315 347 334 320 308 299 292 298 286 269 250 256 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.4 26.8 25.4 23.8 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 139 138 138 136 135 132 131 127 114 101 92 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 126 125 123 121 118 117 117 120 122 111 95 85 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -56.1 -56.0 -55.9 -55.7 -55.5 -55.1 -55.0 -54.8 -55.5 -56.1 -58.0 -59.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 42 41 43 45 47 42 34 25 23 26 34 42 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 6 5 5 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 13 11 3 -1 0 2 0 -18 -25 -31 -28 -10 24 200 MB DIV -22 -31 -11 -10 -16 31 -7 -6 -3 -26 44 71 66 700-850 TADV 3 3 1 5 5 1 2 -4 0 -4 -2 -1 4 LAND (KM) 1462 1404 1348 1323 1302 1312 1383 1536 1765 2197 2250 1978 1773 LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.3 21.7 22.2 22.7 23.6 24.5 25.2 26.0 27.3 29.1 31.4 34.0 LONG(DEG W) 52.0 52.7 53.3 53.7 54.1 54.4 54.1 52.8 50.7 46.6 40.4 34.1 30.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 4 5 8 15 24 29 24 21 HEAT CONTENT 46 43 43 41 38 32 27 39 20 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 16. 21. 25. 27. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 3. -4. -13. -19. -23. -26. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 12. 15. 19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -4. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 21. 21. 15. 11. 12. 15. 13. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902012 INVEST 10/22/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902012 INVEST 10/22/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)