* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902012 10/22/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 45 51 51 48 44 44 50 50 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 45 51 51 48 44 44 50 50 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 34 38 40 38 34 30 27 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 13 13 12 26 31 48 61 57 42 34 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -2 -2 -1 -6 -5 -6 -9 -5 -4 -1 -7 SHEAR DIR 304 302 326 347 326 320 291 296 302 308 289 228 229 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.2 26.1 24.2 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 140 138 138 136 134 132 131 130 121 106 96 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 126 126 124 122 119 116 114 117 123 118 103 92 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -56.5 -56.2 -56.1 -56.1 -55.9 -55.4 -55.1 -54.3 -54.9 -55.4 -57.1 -58.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 5 4 700-500 MB RH 39 42 43 42 43 48 41 33 25 27 30 38 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 9 9 9 9 12 13 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR 14 12 9 -1 -3 4 0 -4 -8 -19 -3 6 8 200 MB DIV -10 -23 -27 -2 -16 11 -2 -8 -17 -28 -1 74 92 700-850 TADV 3 4 3 2 5 3 2 0 -3 -8 -11 -4 0 LAND (KM) 1512 1470 1411 1370 1334 1316 1371 1444 1588 1895 2172 2240 1750 LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.1 21.4 22.0 22.5 23.5 24.6 25.3 26.0 27.0 28.5 30.8 33.5 LONG(DEG W) 51.3 52.0 52.6 53.2 53.7 54.3 54.3 53.9 52.7 49.8 44.1 37.2 30.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 10 20 29 32 31 HEAT CONTENT 48 41 35 32 30 27 23 24 28 8 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 16. 21. 25. 27. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. -1. -10. -20. -25. -27. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 14. 17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 4. 4. 7. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 20. 26. 26. 23. 19. 19. 25. 25. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902012 INVEST 10/22/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902012 INVEST 10/22/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)