* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902012 10/21/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 41 47 48 46 41 41 44 48 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 41 47 48 46 41 41 44 48 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 24 25 26 29 33 35 35 31 27 24 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 11 12 13 23 28 48 52 68 49 26 57 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -3 -2 -2 -4 -5 -12 -5 -18 -6 1 -10 SHEAR DIR 272 304 310 331 348 324 303 306 304 309 307 276 216 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.5 26.9 26.0 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 141 140 139 137 136 134 133 132 127 121 110 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 126 127 127 125 121 119 116 116 120 122 121 111 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -56.1 -56.1 -55.9 -55.9 -55.7 -55.8 -55.2 -54.8 -54.3 -55.2 -56.1 -57.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 42 40 45 41 42 48 44 37 31 30 32 38 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 8 9 13 850 MB ENV VOR 21 17 15 12 3 0 1 -10 -27 -34 -30 -25 22 200 MB DIV 21 -13 -18 -14 -8 -20 15 -2 -12 -6 0 37 62 700-850 TADV 3 1 3 3 2 3 2 2 -2 0 -10 -16 -11 LAND (KM) 1503 1481 1459 1401 1346 1308 1330 1383 1497 1707 2111 2314 1837 LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.5 20.7 21.2 21.6 22.6 23.6 24.5 25.3 26.1 27.0 28.1 30.0 LONG(DEG W) 50.9 51.5 52.0 52.7 53.3 54.0 54.2 54.1 53.3 51.4 47.4 41.3 33.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 7 8 6 5 5 5 7 14 23 33 38 HEAT CONTENT 53 47 41 35 33 32 27 21 26 22 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 737 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 25. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 0. -9. -19. -26. -28. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 16. 22. 23. 21. 16. 16. 19. 23. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902012 INVEST 10/21/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902012 INVEST 10/21/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)