* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902012 10/21/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 25 27 30 35 41 47 48 48 52 55 57 V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 27 30 35 41 47 48 48 52 55 57 V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 23 23 23 26 29 32 34 36 37 38 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 8 6 9 11 15 20 22 30 32 22 34 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 1 0 0 -3 -3 -3 -4 -1 0 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 234 260 312 334 349 344 333 291 293 277 256 246 246 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.3 26.8 26.0 24.7 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 141 140 140 136 133 130 128 124 117 107 101 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 126 127 127 127 121 118 114 113 112 109 101 95 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.8 -55.9 -56.0 -56.0 -55.9 -55.8 -56.0 -55.9 -55.6 -56.2 -56.8 -57.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 9 10 9 8 7 7 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 49 47 45 45 46 46 49 46 39 35 38 42 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR 27 24 17 13 9 -14 -7 -16 -28 -31 -25 -19 27 200 MB DIV 16 24 -2 -11 -19 -24 -4 8 12 5 42 47 65 700-850 TADV 2 3 2 4 4 4 3 2 2 -1 -8 -16 -22 LAND (KM) 1530 1539 1551 1549 1540 1487 1502 1610 1774 2042 2094 2168 1995 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.7 20.1 20.7 21.2 22.7 24.1 25.6 26.7 27.8 29.0 30.2 31.6 LONG(DEG W) 49.7 50.0 50.2 50.8 51.3 52.2 52.6 52.2 51.0 48.6 44.9 39.8 34.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 8 8 8 7 7 10 14 20 24 25 HEAT CONTENT 60 60 59 55 49 31 31 33 16 5 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 723 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 25. 27. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. 2. -2. -4. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 14. 16. 19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 2. 5. 10. 16. 22. 23. 23. 27. 30. 32. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902012 INVEST 10/21/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 56.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902012 INVEST 10/21/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)