* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902012 10/21/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 32 34 36 42 48 52 53 50 47 43 40 V (KT) LAND 30 30 32 34 36 42 48 52 53 50 47 43 40 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 31 33 38 43 46 46 44 40 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 20 11 5 6 12 16 27 36 46 52 50 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 2 1 1 0 -5 -7 -7 -10 -10 -7 -3 SHEAR DIR 205 216 240 310 345 354 326 309 287 293 285 297 279 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.5 27.0 26.1 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 137 137 137 136 134 133 132 129 126 118 110 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 122 123 123 124 123 119 116 114 113 113 109 103 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.5 -55.7 -56.2 -56.3 -56.2 -55.7 -55.4 -55.4 -55.4 -55.5 -56.4 -56.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 7 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 58 56 48 43 43 42 46 51 45 38 39 42 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 6 6 6 6 5 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 15 16 9 6 -3 -10 -7 -16 -39 -42 -57 -60 200 MB DIV 30 12 6 9 -8 -20 -1 -9 4 14 11 14 13 700-850 TADV 3 2 0 3 1 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 3 LAND (KM) 1731 1737 1735 1709 1682 1543 1457 1435 1496 1624 1856 1999 2052 LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.6 21.0 21.4 21.7 22.6 23.7 24.8 25.9 26.9 28.0 29.3 30.4 LONG(DEG W) 47.9 48.3 48.7 49.4 50.0 51.6 52.9 53.7 53.7 52.9 50.9 47.3 42.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 7 8 9 7 6 5 8 14 20 24 HEAT CONTENT 46 47 47 49 52 44 37 24 23 21 5 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 15. 18. 21. 23. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 0. -6. -12. -18. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 13. 15. 17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 6. 12. 18. 22. 23. 20. 17. 13. 10. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902012 INVEST 10/21/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 48.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902012 INVEST 10/21/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)