* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902012 10/20/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 38 44 51 55 58 59 57 53 50 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 38 44 51 55 58 59 57 53 50 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 33 34 35 39 45 51 54 55 53 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 21 15 15 12 7 11 18 25 32 42 47 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 6 5 -1 -1 0 -6 -8 -5 -9 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 209 204 193 209 244 316 333 320 289 261 282 273 275 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.3 26.6 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 135 135 135 136 135 133 132 129 127 122 115 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 123 122 120 120 123 121 116 114 111 111 110 104 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.0 -55.4 -55.5 -55.8 -56.2 -55.9 -55.5 -55.6 -55.6 -56.0 -55.4 -56.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 6 6 4 700-500 MB RH 62 59 53 50 48 43 40 47 52 50 43 43 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 4 5 5 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 18 15 10 0 -1 -6 -18 -12 0 -15 -29 -25 -26 200 MB DIV 14 43 37 10 0 11 -31 -4 9 19 -5 4 23 700-850 TADV 2 4 2 1 -1 0 3 3 2 0 0 -4 -9 LAND (KM) 1750 1789 1817 1804 1793 1695 1553 1474 1499 1583 1712 1970 1974 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.4 21.0 21.4 21.7 22.3 23.2 24.3 25.5 26.5 27.4 28.5 29.8 LONG(DEG W) 46.8 47.3 47.7 48.2 48.6 50.0 51.7 53.0 53.4 53.1 52.2 49.9 46.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 5 6 8 9 7 6 6 9 15 18 HEAT CONTENT 42 42 40 39 38 50 44 38 27 26 12 4 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 703 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 14. 18. 21. 23. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 5. 2. -1. -5. -10. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. 14. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 14. 21. 25. 28. 29. 27. 23. 20. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902012 INVEST 10/20/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902012 INVEST 10/20/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)