* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902012 09/08/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 20 21 22 24 28 29 27 25 26 30 33 V (KT) LAND 20 19 20 21 22 24 28 26 28 26 27 31 30 V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 18 17 17 18 20 21 26 26 25 26 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 25 21 12 10 8 11 23 34 22 16 9 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -3 -6 -2 0 0 4 4 3 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 1 2 40 44 30 48 155 201 210 205 169 121 136 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.6 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 144 145 145 146 146 144 145 150 150 149 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 117 121 124 125 127 128 127 127 131 132 134 136 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.0 -52.1 -51.4 -51.7 -51.6 -52.4 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 9 9 9 5 8 6 8 7 8 9 10 700-500 MB RH 46 42 50 51 45 42 33 30 25 28 29 31 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -68 -51 -1 7 -2 -7 -5 -32 -31 -32 -9 -8 18 200 MB DIV -15 18 16 -1 -9 3 2 4 -8 14 -5 5 0 700-850 TADV 0 1 5 7 5 4 -2 0 -11 -11 -11 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 173 178 184 231 286 268 94 -89 91 245 307 143 -15 LAT (DEG N) 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.5 27.5 27.2 26.2 24.9 23.5 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 88.8 88.7 88.5 87.9 87.2 85.7 83.7 81.6 79.2 77.7 77.3 78.2 79.7 STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 4 6 6 8 9 10 9 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 39 37 36 36 39 59 32 4 65 80 108 114 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):140/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 18. 24. 28. 32. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 7. 2. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 9. 7. 5. 6. 10. 13. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902012 INVEST 09/08/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902012 INVEST 09/08/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)