* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902012 09/07/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 32 35 39 39 36 31 29 28 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 32 35 39 39 36 29 28 30 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 28 31 35 39 41 32 29 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 18 15 20 18 7 3 14 23 38 36 32 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -5 -2 -1 -4 -1 0 0 4 3 5 3 SHEAR DIR 15 26 14 9 41 47 11 175 192 200 208 209 196 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 147 146 148 148 147 146 146 146 144 147 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 122 121 120 122 126 126 126 126 125 122 125 129 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -52.0 -51.7 -51.6 -51.4 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 12 13 10 9 9 4 7 5 7 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 47 46 43 44 51 46 41 35 28 28 26 30 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR -55 -51 -64 -41 5 -1 5 -1 -27 -33 -62 -19 -22 200 MB DIV -22 -15 -25 23 3 4 7 9 7 1 4 -11 8 700-850 TADV 0 2 0 -1 6 5 3 -5 1 -9 -11 -18 -17 LAND (KM) 166 178 192 191 191 225 272 286 167 14 -58 -44 70 LAT (DEG N) 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.2 26.8 26.1 25.2 LONG(DEG W) 89.2 89.5 89.7 89.8 89.8 88.9 87.7 86.1 84.4 82.7 81.5 81.1 81.9 STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 1 0 2 5 6 7 8 7 4 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 40 41 41 42 42 52 38 58 42 25 5 32 48 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):210/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 1. -4. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 14. 14. 11. 6. 4. 3. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902012 INVEST 09/07/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902012 INVEST 09/07/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)