* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902012 09/07/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 27 30 32 39 38 38 36 34 31 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 27 30 32 39 38 38 36 34 31 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 26 28 30 34 39 43 45 44 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 20 17 15 21 6 9 5 12 23 34 33 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 -2 -5 -2 0 -3 -4 1 -2 0 3 4 SHEAR DIR 347 7 14 10 11 59 313 313 224 201 220 220 230 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 147 148 149 150 151 149 146 145 146 145 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 122 122 123 123 126 128 128 126 125 125 122 121 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 12 13 11 10 6 7 6 8 6 8 7 700-500 MB RH 46 46 45 41 43 50 42 37 32 31 26 28 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 6 5 6 4 6 4 3 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR -73 -68 -56 -62 -19 10 3 15 -8 -19 -49 -53 -44 200 MB DIV -15 -10 -13 -26 19 5 22 10 -1 3 -2 4 -5 700-850 TADV -2 0 1 0 -2 7 2 3 0 -1 0 -10 -6 LAND (KM) 122 146 167 177 191 233 288 315 360 316 181 79 88 LAT (DEG N) 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.0 26.5 26.4 26.5 26.8 27.0 26.9 26.5 LONG(DEG W) 89.2 89.6 89.9 90.2 90.4 90.1 89.3 88.3 87.1 85.8 84.4 83.3 83.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 2 2 3 4 5 5 6 5 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 45 46 50 52 55 57 82 91 26 38 40 31 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):230/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 6. 2. -2. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 14. 13. 13. 11. 9. 6. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902012 INVEST 09/07/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902012 INVEST 09/07/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)