* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902012 09/07/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 28 32 34 34 28 22 21 21 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 28 32 34 30 31 25 23 24 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 26 27 29 32 30 32 31 28 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 20 22 18 15 10 7 10 23 35 41 27 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -2 -5 -5 -2 1 0 7 2 5 4 7 SHEAR DIR 8 346 2 359 354 48 269 265 219 222 227 228 207 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.9 29.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 140 142 143 143 143 145 142 144 142 139 150 152 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 119 118 117 117 122 124 127 125 123 131 131 133 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.7 -52.2 -52.1 -51.4 -51.2 -50.5 -50.6 -50.2 TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 9 12 12 8 8 4 6 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 44 44 47 46 44 52 42 38 32 31 30 28 27 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 4 6 6 5 4 2 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR -51 -73 -63 -53 -59 7 0 -6 -18 -29 -35 -22 1 200 MB DIV -12 -4 -10 -22 -18 5 6 23 21 3 -22 15 2 700-850 TADV 2 -2 0 0 0 10 2 0 -4 -9 -24 -18 -19 LAND (KM) 103 100 111 107 107 91 202 158 -26 116 366 519 574 LAT (DEG N) 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.8 29.2 29.1 28.2 27.1 LONG(DEG W) 88.6 89.0 89.3 89.5 89.7 89.5 87.5 85.1 82.4 79.7 76.9 75.0 74.3 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 2 2 1 5 10 11 12 12 10 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 35 36 38 39 40 37 33 31 12 51 59 62 48 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):195/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 718 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 25. 28. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 1. -4. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -11. -10. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 7. 9. 9. 3. -3. -4. -4. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902012 INVEST 09/07/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902012 INVEST 09/07/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)