* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902012 09/06/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 30 34 36 39 40 40 41 41 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 30 34 36 39 40 40 32 32 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 28 30 33 37 41 45 34 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 15 19 20 20 19 4 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -6 -3 0 -3 -2 0 -3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 27 15 353 2 17 4 342 309 231 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.2 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 143 145 146 146 147 147 144 145 144 138 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 119 120 121 121 120 123 126 125 125 124 117 116 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -52.5 -52.4 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 10 10 12 10 9 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 47 46 47 46 42 50 45 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 7 6 5 6 4 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -52 -68 -54 -45 -46 10 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -12 -2 -4 -20 -27 3 12 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 1 -2 0 0 -1 4 3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 139 147 163 173 188 192 189 222 265 183 42 -84 1 LAT (DEG N) 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.6 28.1 28.4 28.3 28.0 LONG(DEG W) 88.3 88.6 88.8 89.1 89.3 89.7 89.4 88.3 86.7 84.9 83.1 81.5 80.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 3 2 0 3 6 8 8 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 34 35 41 45 49 50 49 47 43 33 34 12 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):195/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 25. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 9. 11. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902012 INVEST 09/06/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 5.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902012 INVEST 09/06/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)