* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902012 09/06/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 32 35 40 41 42 39 35 29 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 32 35 40 41 42 39 35 28 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 28 31 34 39 44 47 46 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 18 15 20 20 11 7 10 12 24 34 44 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -6 -3 0 -4 0 -3 -2 2 0 3 -4 SHEAR DIR 16 22 8 348 5 357 8 279 252 233 237 232 243 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 144 146 147 148 149 150 150 144 141 138 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 118 120 122 123 122 122 127 128 124 121 116 114 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -51.8 -52.0 -51.6 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 12 10 10 13 8 8 3 6 3 6 2 700-500 MB RH 46 47 46 44 46 43 51 46 40 34 31 28 27 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 7 6 6 5 4 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -27 -50 -67 -52 -41 22 6 13 16 -7 -23 -64 200 MB DIV -19 -10 -8 -14 -24 -12 8 -3 13 1 13 7 -10 700-850 TADV 1 2 2 -2 0 2 7 2 -1 -9 0 -4 1 LAND (KM) 102 101 112 134 156 158 166 202 222 213 164 33 -25 LAT (DEG N) 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.3 27.1 27.7 28.5 29.4 30.0 LONG(DEG W) 88.5 88.8 89.1 89.5 89.9 90.5 90.8 90.4 89.2 87.8 86.4 85.4 85.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 4 4 3 2 1 4 6 7 7 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 34 35 37 42 47 54 59 56 58 36 33 25 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):220/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 25. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 0. -5. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 10. 15. 16. 17. 14. 10. 4. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902012 INVEST 09/06/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902012 INVEST 09/06/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)