* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902012 09/06/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 32 33 36 37 37 33 28 24 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 30 32 33 36 37 32 31 26 22 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 27 29 31 34 33 35 34 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 23 16 16 22 17 24 3 12 27 45 51 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -1 -2 -6 -3 -2 -2 -1 1 0 3 4 10 SHEAR DIR 360 9 3 357 343 357 345 338 248 232 237 234 239 SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.1 28.8 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 138 140 141 142 143 141 140 141 141 140 141 152 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 117 118 118 118 116 117 119 123 125 128 139 140 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -51.7 -51.1 -50.6 -49.5 -47.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 12 12 10 12 10 8 4 5 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 43 45 48 46 45 45 42 48 36 34 28 30 19 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 8 7 7 7 6 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -51 -41 -31 -58 -79 -57 -28 20 8 8 -16 -26 -2 200 MB DIV -15 -12 -9 -16 -16 -32 36 -4 7 14 2 -10 -23 700-850 TADV -1 2 2 0 -2 0 0 8 -1 -9 -14 -60 -40 LAND (KM) 87 71 77 105 136 149 139 196 72 -43 214 465 691 LAT (DEG N) 29.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 88.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 3 2 2 3 6 10 15 18 19 19 HEAT CONTENT 26 30 32 33 37 34 29 33 28 13 66 44 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 24. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 6. 4. 3. 1. -4. -10. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 11. 12. 12. 8. 3. -1. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902012 INVEST 09/06/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902012 INVEST 09/06/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)