* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902012 09/06/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 33 34 34 39 41 38 33 27 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 30 33 34 34 39 41 33 31 25 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 26 27 28 30 34 38 33 35 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 26 23 18 16 19 15 15 3 14 36 50 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 0 -1 -6 0 -3 0 -1 -2 3 0 10 SHEAR DIR 5 356 10 12 3 351 329 10 269 246 227 238 237 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.3 27.6 28.2 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 138 140 142 142 142 140 139 141 133 142 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 114 115 117 118 117 117 117 119 124 119 127 136 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.1 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.8 -52.1 -52.1 -51.1 -50.7 -49.1 TH_E DEV (C) 12 9 9 11 12 9 13 7 7 2 4 2 4 700-500 MB RH 45 43 45 48 45 46 42 52 43 36 30 26 26 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 8 9 7 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -52 -35 -34 -59 -66 -62 17 16 14 4 -10 -13 200 MB DIV 0 -3 -14 -5 -15 -18 -9 2 -6 1 12 -4 -2 700-850 TADV 7 -3 2 1 1 0 0 10 0 -6 -19 -47 -46 LAND (KM) 88 121 120 110 115 133 77 53 124 12 -85 255 427 LAT (DEG N) 29.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 4 3 1 3 4 8 11 14 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 26 32 39 44 49 58 50 44 30 27 8 67 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):210/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ -7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 489 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 24. 27. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 4. 3. 2. -1. -7. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 9. 14. 16. 13. 8. 2. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902012 INVEST 09/06/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 6.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902012 INVEST 09/06/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)