* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902012 09/05/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 32 32 32 33 37 35 35 34 V (KT) LAND 25 29 30 31 32 35 35 35 36 39 38 32 34 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 29 29 29 29 30 31 34 38 44 40 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 23 19 23 28 17 15 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -2 -3 0 -5 1 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 18 25 15 354 15 16 6 356 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.2 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 135 135 137 138 140 141 142 143 146 141 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 111 112 113 113 114 116 116 118 123 129 127 133 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 -51.2 -51.5 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 11 12 9 8 11 8 11 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 49 49 48 51 52 54 53 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 6 6 7 6 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -35 -40 -52 -46 -55 -60 -51 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -5 -5 -1 -22 18 -5 -22 -7 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 7 7 -2 2 2 1 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -22 14 51 88 124 155 161 171 200 256 196 -69 218 LAT (DEG N) 30.7 30.4 30.0 29.7 29.3 28.8 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.5 28.9 LONG(DEG W) 86.4 86.6 86.8 87.1 87.4 87.7 88.0 88.2 88.0 86.9 84.8 81.9 78.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 3 7 11 14 16 HEAT CONTENT 19 13 23 26 30 35 39 43 43 44 36 12 76 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):185/ 11 CX,CY: 0/-10 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 390 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 15. 20. 24. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 6. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 8. 12. 10. 10. 9. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902012 INVEST 09/05/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902012 INVEST 09/05/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)